TRUMP REDUX - IMPLICATIONS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL FAR-RIGHT

President Donald Trump’s return for a second presidential term is a seismic political development. His impact has been immediately felt, with a wide range of policy shifts and executive orders influencing issues such as immigration, trade, LGBTQ-rights, foreign aid, and geopolitics.

The new administration has also triggered a range of reactions from the far-right. Trump’s victory may have emboldened far-right actors (ISD defines far-right extremism as a form of nationalism that is characterised by its reference to racial, ethnic or cultural supremacy) but as this analysis shows, it has also revealed fissures within the movement. It is therefore important for policymakers and practitioners to understand the potential impact of a second Trump presidency on far-right activity and strategic thinking, both domestically and abroad.

This short analysis will summarise key reactions among far-right extremists in the US, Canada, the UK and Germany and identify potential dividing lines.

Key Takeaways

• Major election events coincided with a rise in domestic extremist activity online, with significant gaps between far-right groups.
• Incendiary campaign rhetoric was followed by an increase in hateful content online.
• Election fraud misinformation among US extremists decreased shortly after 5 November.
• Reactions to Trump among the international far right are largely enthusiastic, especially regarding policies vis-a-vis immigration, LGBTQ+ communities and pardons for January 6 actors.
• Some far-right voices, both in the US and abroad, expressed mixed or even negative views towards Trump.
• Elon Musk made attempts to influence political debate abroad, supporting the far-right actors in Germany and the United Kingdom.

US elections sparks far-right extremist activity online

ISD produces regular quantitative analysis of domestic extremism trends in Canada and the US. Our data consistently showed significant spikes in activity in extremist reactions to events related to the US elections.

For example, Canadian white supremacist discussions on Telegram peaked on the 13 July, the day of the first assassination attempt on then-US presidential candidate Donald Trump (see above). Posts frequently contained speculation and conspiracy theories about the events being a plot by leftist elites. The US election also drove spikes in discussions across white supremacist, ethnonationalist, anti-Muslim extremist, and male supremacist Canadian accounts on X (see below) – highlighting the importance of events beyond Canada for domestic extremist communication online.

Similarly, the highest spike in anti-migrant hate among Canadian domestic extremists came in response to the US presidential debate that took place on 11 September, during which Trump spread unfounded claims about the Haitian migrant community in Springfield, Ohio (see below). Posts made by Canadian domestic extremists the next day compared the situation in Canada to the US, with some calling for the immediate deportation of migrants, commonly using the phrase, “they have to go back”.

In the lead-up to the election, allegations of election fraud and non-citizen voting became increasingly prominent among far-right accounts in the US. For example, anti-government and anti-authority extremist accounts promoted conspiracy theories about the 2020 election results and an uprising against the so-called “deep state”. Interestingly though perhaps unsurprisingly, false and misleading narratives and conspiracy theories about voter fraud gained traction until the election, but disappeared quickly after it became clear Trump had won. Claims around election fraud and non-citizens voting dropped by 55% after the presidential and majority of Congressional races were called (see below).

Following the election, far-right extremists instead celebrated Trump’s landslide victory by spreading highly misogynist narratives. For example, Nick Fuentes, an influential white nationalist podcaster, was among the early adopters of the phrase “Your body, my choice”, with his 5 November post on X receiving over 35 million views. The phrase “your body, my choice” appears to have made its way offline, with reported instances of harassment against girls in schools referencing it.

Mixed reactions to Trump’s victory among far-right extremists

Many extremists in the US and beyond claimed that Trump’s win would be a positive development, believing that it would allow them to further mainstream their respective ideologies, damage liberal and leftist causes and result in the release of January 6 arrestees.

ISD’s analysis of US extremists showed that Proud Boys-affiliated accounts were particularly active in the immediate aftermath of the election, calling for Trump to pardon their incarcerated leaders (see below).

By contrast, groups such as Active Clubs, White Lives Matter, Patriot Front, and Blood Tribe did not show higher levels of activity in the lead-up to the election. This suggests that these groups may not be as responsive to Trump and the wider MAGA movement: in fact, many of these more overtly neo-Nazi and white supremacist groups do not believe elections will help them reach their ideological goals (even though some of them will still support Trump on specific points, such as his deportation policies).

Canadian far-right groups were likewise closely following the US election, celebrating Trump’s candidacy while simultaneously expressing concerns about the potential for increased legal and illegal migration to Canada after a Trump victory. Additionally, these groups amplified anti-democracy rhetoric, spreading claims of election fraud in the US and promoting antisemitic conspiracy theories (see below).

Fgure 1: Canadian extremists’ reactions to Trump election

Despite their deep engagement with American politics, there has been relatively little enthusiasm for the idea of Canada becoming the so-called "51st state". While some domestic extremist actors argue that the best course of action is to let the US invade Canada, others argue that becoming part of the US would be worse, because the American government is more heavily controlled by a Jewish conspiracy. For example, a post by the Diagolon leader (Diagolon is a loose network centred around a collective of Canadian live streamers promoting white nationalism and conspiracy theories) Growing Jeremy Mackenzie stated ‘if you’re Pro Trump and think surrendering total control of our country to Israel is a good idea than its best that you depart the community...’

Figure 2: Canadian extremists’ expressing support for becoming the 51st state of the US

International far-right figures beyond North America also frequently celebrated Trump’s newly announced or expected policies on immigration, ceasing support for Ukraine, LGBTQ+ communities, and pardons for January 6 actors.

The day after the inauguration for example, associates of the jailed British far-right activist Tommy Robinson used his account to publish a post celebrating Trump’s order pardoning the January 6 rioters (see below).

Figure 3: Tommy Robinson post celebrating Trump’s order pardoning the January 6 rioters

Similarly, the Austrian ethnonationalist activist and influencer Martin Sellner also joined the chorus of those expressing joy around Trump’s victory, portraying it as a cultural victory for the far-right whose ideas opposing immigration and trans rights had been mainstreamed. Nevertheless, Sellner cautioned that the far right should view Trump’s return as an intermediate step rather than the achievement of their final goal. He therefore made the case that “Trump needs a radical flank” that would push public discourse further to the right to normalise more extremist positions.

Figure 4: Martin Sellner calling for “a radical flank” to push Trump further to the far right

It should be noted however, there were minority voices expressing more hesitant positions vis-à-vis the new administration. At times, this went beyond concerns around Trump and the role played by the businessman and senior advisor to the President, Elon Musk (see following section), to include a broader cultural, historical and geopolitical critique of the US.

Björn Höcke, who is widely seen as the leader of the most extreme wing of the German Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), welcomed Trump’s electoral victory as a defeat of wokeness. But he also argued that Europeans could not rely on the US to pursue their own nationalist agendas: “It is clear, however, that Trump will not act as a liberator outside the USA, but as a representative of American interests. Make Europe great again - nobody is taking this mission away from us.”

Figure 5: AfD politician Björn Höcke commenting on the return of Trump

Furthermore, the German ethnonationalist publishing house Jungeuropa, which caters to a more specialised audience interested in far-right philosophy, heavily criticised the German far-right’s excitement about Trump. In a series of long-form podcasts, the Jungeuropa publishers described the US as a hostile foreign power still militarily occupying Germany whose cultural influence and historical role in European politics genuine nationalists must reject.

The neo-fascist British group Patriotic Alternative similarly remained cautious, publishing an article on its blog questioning whether Trump’s return “is a victory for the dissident right, or if it is simply the other side of the uniparty system winning” given that both candidates are allegedly “heavily beholden to the all-powerful Zionist lobby” and “neither candidate was pro-White.”

Musk’s interventions in British and German Politics

In the month leading up to Trump’s inauguration, X owner Elon Musk began to attempt to influence political debate abroad, especially in the United Kingdom and Germany, the latter of which held federal elections on 23 February.

On 29 December, Musk wrote an op-ed for the German newspaper Welt, in which he argued “only the AfD can save Germany.” In early January, Musk further amplified the AfD by inviting party leader Alice Weidel to a one-to-one conversation with Musk on X. During the interview, Musk endorsed the AfD again, falsely referring to Weidel as the leading candidate in the German elections. Following the controversy around what many had perceived to be a Nazi salute, Musk also appeared remotely at the AfD’s party conference on 25 January. During his speech, Musk expressed his opposition to German memory culture, arguing that “children should not be guilty of the sins of their parents, let alone their great grandparents… There is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that.”

Figure 6: Elon Musk appearing remotely at the AfD’s party conference

In early 2025, Musk also made several controversial statements regarding grooming gangs in the United Kingdom. Musk criticised Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State Jess Phillips, accusing them of ignoring child sexual exploitation cases involving Pakistani men. Musk specifically referred to Phillips, a long-standing advocate for women’s rights, as a “rape genocide apologist." By contrast, Musk expressed his support for the far-right activist Tommy Robinson, who was imprisoned for contempt of court after repeating false claims against a Syrian refugee. In 2019, Robinson had come close to collapsing the Huddersfield grooming gangs trial after breaking reporting restrictions imposed to avoid prejudicing the jury. On 6 January 2025, Musk even polled his over 200 million followers on X if “America should liberate the people of Britain from their tyrannical government.”

Figure 7: Musk polling his X followers if “America should liberate the people of Britain from their tyrannical government.”

It remains to be seen how Musk’s interventions in the UK and Germany will influence public debate. Polling by YouGov suggested that large majorities in both countries (71%) have negative views of Musk. His attempts to influence politics in the UK and Germany proved even less popular. Only around one fifth said they believed Musk knew “a great deal” or “a fair amount” about major problems facing their country. The AfD won 20.8% of the vote during the federal elections, slightly higher than they were polling before Musk’s intervention. However, it would also be plausible that this minor jump was due to a series of high-profile violent attacks by Islamist extremists and refugees in the months leading up to the election which played into the AfD’s anti-migration narratives.

Outlook

As the world watches the new US administration take charge, a number of pressing questions emerge about the potential impact of a second Trump presidency. Domestically, concerns about political violence remain high, with uncertainty over whether tensions will escalate or stabilise. The shifting Overton window suggests that far-right movements will continue evolving, likely emphasizing issues such as immigration, nationalism, and opposition to progressive social policies. Meanwhile, the dynamic between Trump and Elon Musk could impact the future of outlook of social media and political discourse, particularly as new regulatory approaches to social media take hold both in the European Union.

Trump’s victory is already emboldening far-right parties abroad. As the case studies in this article show, the "America First" doctrine may ultimately create friction with nationalist movements in other countries, testing alliances between far-right actors across borders in unexpected ways. There are reportedly also questions around willingness of partner countries to share sensitive information with US intelligence agencies led by Trump loyalists. Relatedly, there are concerns that the deprioritizing of far-right violent extremism by the US as well as layoffs could have implications for international counterterrorism efforts, as the FBI and US intelligence agencies have been major players in sharing information with international agencies on plots and preventing attacks. Ultimately, the extent of these shifts will depend on how both domestic and international far-right groups respond to the realignments that the new administration may bring.

The term “Diagolon” refers to a fictional country running diagonally through North America, from Alaska to Florida. Over the past ten years, there has been significant public discussion following multiple inquiries into such gangs across England. While in some of the most well-known cases, offenders were predominantly men of Pakistani origin abusing white girls, statistics on the ethnicity of offenders are incomplete. This makes discussions around over-representation of certain offenders highly complex, with accusations of both racial stereotyping as well as false tolerance being widely leveraged. Given this uncertainty, the British far-right has attempted to instrumentalise grievances around inadequate responses to the grooming gangs. https://news.sky.com/story/child-sex-abuse-and-grooming-gangs-what-we-know-and-what-we-dont-from-the-data-13285420